The Food Trends We Called, and What Actually Happened

We published nine food-trend predictions at the end of 2020. Here is the honest scorecard — what stuck, what quietly died, and what turned into something we did not expect.

Food-trend lists are cheap to write and almost never revisited, which is convenient for the people writing them. We would rather go back and mark our own homework. Below are the nine trends we called at the start of the decade, each with what we said at the time and what actually happened — and, where we got it wrong, why.

1. Flexitarian eating

What we said: that a flexible approach to vegetarianism — mostly plants, without swearing off anything — would outgrow strict vegetarianism.

What happened: correct, and then some. "Flexitarian" as a word has faded, but the behaviour it described became the default. Meat-free Mondays, a bean chilli midweek, a plant-based option assumed rather than requested — this is now simply how a lot of households eat, without anyone claiming an identity for it. Research on plant-forward eating supported the same conclusion: additions work better than prohibitions.

2. Home cooking

What we said: that the lockdown surge in home cooking would outlast lockdown.

What happened: partly right, and we were too optimistic. Sourdough went back in the cupboard. But two habits stayed: people kept the techniques they learned, and they kept making restaurant dishes at home rather than treating them as things only restaurants make. What actually won was the middle ground — meal kits, batch cooking, and the assumption that a decent dinner is a solved problem on a Wednesday.

3. Everything moringa

What we said: that moringa would be the superfood of the year.

What happened: it did not have a breakout year, and we should be honest that we had an interest in predicting one. What it did instead was better: it stopped being a trend and became a staple. Moringa is now on ordinary supermarket shelves rather than only in specialist shops, and the people buying it are buying their fourth bag, not their first.

The reasons hold up. Moringa leaf is nutrient-dense in a way that is unusual for a green — 47 antioxidant compounds, 25 vitamins and minerals, and all nine essential amino acids, which most leafy greens do not provide. It is naturally caffeine-free. And it tastes distinct enough to be interesting: green and faintly savoury, closer to matcha or fresh peas than to anything sweet. That combination is what makes a food last past its trend cycle.

4. Low- and no-alcohol drinks

What we said: that low- and no-alcohol alternatives would move from novelty to normal.

What happened: the most emphatically correct call on the list, and still accelerating. Zero-percent beer became genuinely good rather than merely available. Non-alcoholic spirits built an entire category. Most importantly, the social cost of ordering one collapsed — which was always the real barrier, not the product.

The knock-on effect is one we did not predict: it made the rest of the drinks menu more interesting. If someone is not drinking, a tart hibiscus infusion or a proper iced herbal tea has to earn its place, and producers responded accordingly.

5. Foods for immune support

What we said: that, given the circumstances, this would be the year's biggest nutrition story.

What happened: it was — and it also produced the decade's worst nutrition marketing. This is the one we would write most differently now.

The immune system is a distributed system involving many organs, cell types and signalling pathways, not a dial that goes up. The evidence does not support the idea that any food supercharges it. What the evidence does support is narrower and less marketable: several nutrients are genuinely required for normal immune function — vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc, selenium, vitamin A and vitamin E among them — and being deficient in them impairs it. Correcting a deficiency helps. Exceeding your requirement does not stack.

So the useful version of this trend is: eat a varied diet with enough of those nutrients in it, get your vitamin D checked if you live somewhere with real winters, and be sceptical of anything sold as a shortcut. That is a duller sentence than the one we wrote in 2020, and it is the accurate one.

6. Supply-chain transparency

What we said: that shoppers would increasingly demand to know where food comes from. IRI defined transparency as the expectation of clarity, accuracy and usefulness in food information.

What happened: right in direction, mixed in execution. Certification labels multiplied to the point of meaninglessness, and "clean" turned into a marketing aesthetic rather than a claim. But the underlying demand is real and it is not going away, and the brands that answered it specifically — this farm, this region, this drying method — did better than the ones that answered it with a leaf logo.

For our part: our moringa is grown on organic farms in Sri Lanka, hand-harvested, and shade-dried rather than heat-dried. That last detail is the one worth knowing, because it is the difference between a bright green powder and a khaki one.

7. Gut health

What we said: that the microbiome would be the next big nutrition frontier.

What happened: correct, and the science genuinely moved. The most durable finding turned out to be the least glamorous: dietary fibre diversity matters more than any single probiotic product. Thirty different plants a week outperforms one expensive capsule. Fermented foods — yogurt, kefir, kimchi, sauerkraut, miso — earned their place in the same period.

What did not survive scrutiny was the consumer microbiome test, which mostly told people things that were not actionable.

8. Upcycled foods

What we said: that food made from ingredients that would otherwise have been wasted, as defined by the Upcycled Food Association, would become mainstream.

What happened: the slowest-burning entry on the list. Certification exists, the category is real, and spent-grain flour and pulp-based snacks are on shelves. But it never became a reason people chose a product — it became a nice thing on the back of the pack. Our own read is that it will matter more as an input-cost story for manufacturers than as a consumer trend.

9. Olive oil's return

What we said: that olive oil would be the fat of the year.

What happened: right, then complicated by drought. Mediterranean harvests fell hard and prices roughly doubled, which changed the conversation from "which olive oil" to "how much olive oil."

Two things worth knowing while it is expensive. First, extra virgin olive oil's polyphenol content is what distinguishes it, and it degrades with light and time — buy dark bottles, buy smaller ones, and use them. Second, the persistent claim that you cannot cook with extra virgin is not accurate; its smoke point is comfortably above normal sautéing temperatures. Save the very good bottle for finishing, and cook with the ordinary one without guilt.

What the scorecard actually shows

Reading these back, the pattern is not about individual foods. Every prediction that held up was really the same prediction: that people would keep moving toward eating more plants, more variety, and more things they could trace. Every one that missed — moringa's breakout year, the upcycled revolution — missed because we mistook a good idea for a fast one.

That is worth remembering the next time you read a trend list, including this one. The things that last are rarely the things that arrive loudly.

These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease.

Always consult a healthcare professional before making changes to your diet, especially if you are pregnant, nursing, or managing a medical condition.